[personal profile] lenv1
In the August, 2007 ACBL bulletin, Marty had an article about this card combination:

9865
AJ432

There's a similar one in the 2001 Encyclopedia of contract bridge (AJ9xx opposite xxxx) but that's a little different since you can't pick up KQT7 onside with the actual holding.

He says "if East-West clubs split 2-2, your play doesn't matter." That means he'll play the ace on either the first or second trick. He then says that when RHO plays the 7 he'll play the ace, because QT7 and KT7 are twice as likely as KQ7. He finishes by saying you should finesse the jack if RHO plays the T instead of the 7.

Ok, fine. Not to mention this was in the intermediate players section, and he specified that RHO is a "normal" intermediate player. Still, against an expert, is it right to play the ace? If RHO will play the T from T7 (and why wouldn't he?) you can finesse the J and then cash the ace (remember, he claimed all doubletons), but now a T from QT7 or KT7 picks up a second trick for RHO.

The encyclopedia gives different probabilities of picking up the suit for one loser, and different lines of play, based on whether RHO will falsecard the T from those three holdings. Well done, ACBL! It also gives a probability of picking up the suit when RHO will split from KQ7. That's pretty optimistic.

If you're not sure you'd find this falsecard, as RHO, at the table, just remember it the way I do: play upside down count.

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lenv1

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